Subtext 2006-2007 Perspective On Book Publishing: Numbers, Issues & Trends

The Subtext 2007-2008 Perspective On Book Publishing: Numbers, Issues & Trends
Price $995, Published September 2007

11th Edition

300+ Pages of Solid Research

20 Profiles of Publishers & Booksellers

100+ Statistical Tables and Charts

Available in print and PDF format

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Call (203) 316 8008 or
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This report is a definitive reference work that includes the comprehensive, exclusive research leading players in the book business seek as they plan their strategy for the new millennium.
Scroll down, or click to browse complete Table of Contents and Table of Tables

For example:
	Know the market share of major trade categories and subjects.
	The multiples paid for categories in recent acquisitions.
	Get the most up-to-date, first-hand statistics generated through our own surveys.
	Find out how to partner for profit within book publishing and across other media.
	Get the inside track on which companies are likely to be acquiring, divesting; and why.
	Know the trends in consumer buying by subject and format.
	Get the hottest demographics. Who’s buying which books.

Who Has Previously Bought Our Report ? Here are just a few of the companies that have bought past editions:
The McGraw-Hill Cos.	R.R.Donnelley
Simon & Schuster	Microsoft
Ingram Book Company	Barnes & Noble
International Thomson	Appleton Coated
Reader’s Digest	HarperCollins
McKinsey & Co	Meredith Corp.
Scholastic, Inc.

Table Of Contents

Chapter One: Executive Summary 1
Industry Overview 1
Consumer Publishing 2
Book Retailing 4
Educational Publishing 5
Professional Publishing 9
Forecasts 10

Chapter Two: Overview Of The Book Business 13
About The Numbers 13
Modest Growth In All Sectors 14
Trends In 2006 14
The Digital Imperative—For Real This Time 14
Distributor Woes 15
Acquisition Activity Ramps Up 16
The Internet Rules 17
But Google Riles 17
Used Books—Continued Threat 18
Revenues Gain, Units Flat In 2006 18
U.S. Market Leads 21
Breakout Of The 20 Largest 21

Chapter Three: Consumer Publishing 25
Title Output Up, Unit Sales Down In 2006 25
A Mature Market 26
New Markets, New Formats 27
Book Clubs, Mail Order, Re-Categorized 29
Chains’ 2006 Growth Slower Than That Of Publishers 30
The Leading Trade Mass-Market Publishers, 2006-2007 32
The Leading Adult Trade Hardcover Publishers 35
The Leading Adult Trade Paperback Publishers 35
Children’s Books 2006: Snicket Series Ends 35
The Leading Children’s Book Publishers 38
Religious Books: Dipping Into The Mainstream 40
The Ten Largest Christian Publishers 41
STATS Sheds Some Light On CBA Market; But Not Enough 43
Pubtrack On Track 43
Christian Indies: “Mission” Impossible? 44
Mass Market: Slight Growth Continues 46
Major Mass Market Players’ Estimated Market Share 47
Book Clubs Endure 48
Mail Order: A Grim Outlook 49
Audiobooks: The Challenge Of Changing Formats 50
The 15 Bestselling Consumer Book Categories Of 2006 52
Skimpy Profit Margins For Many 54
Consumer Publishing Mergers & Acquisitions 2006 56
Bestsellers 2006: Many Repeat Performers 58

Chapter Four: Book Retailing 63
Market Always A Challenge 63
Chains Have The Lion’s Share 64
Major Chains Report Modest Rises In 2006 Sales 65
Sales Of The Top Six Largest U.S, Chains Close To $10 Billion In 2006 67
Superstores Better Performing Outlets 69
Chains’ Strategy 69
Independents: Survival Of The Fittest 71
Online Bookselling: Amazon Still Ahead 71
Barnes & Noble Takes Back Its Dot-Com 72
Trade Distribution 72
Room Only For Top Players 74

Chapter Five: Mergers & Acquisitions 75
Industry-Shaping Deals In Education Dominate 2007 M&A Scene 75
2006 M&A Review: Niche Deals Abound, But Large Deals Regain Command 81
2005 M&A Review: A Big One Fizzles 88
Numerous Small Deals Spur 2004 Activity 94
M&A 2003: Small Deals Thrive As Publishers Build & Bolster 99
M&A 2002 Mega-Deals End With Houghton Mifflin 104
M&A Activity In 2001 105
The Pre-2001 Consolidation Heydey 106

Chapter Six: Educational Publishing 109
Size And Structure Of The K-12 Market 109
K-12 Market Growth Rates 110
Educational Publishers Face Tougher Terrain In 2006; Pearson On Top 111
Top Players In El-Hi And College Publishing 115
Modest Advances For Most College Publishers 118
HM Riverdeep To Become Second-Largest 119
College Publilshing Grapples With Pricing And Technology 120
MDR On College Technology Spending 124
College Technology Spending By Department 125
Computer Brand Of Choice 125
AAP Statistics On El-Hi Sales 126
Make-up And Structure Of The El-Hi Market 139
Trends In Student Enrollment, Numbers Of Schools 140
DOE Data On Expenditures 144
Projections: Teacher Pool And Pupil/Teacher Ratio 148
Pupil/Teacher Ratio 150
DOEProjections: Enrollment And Spending 150
Regional Variations In K-12 Enrollment 154
Projections: Current Expenditures—School And College 155
Sales And Consumer Spending Projections To 2011 158

Chapter Seven: Professional Publishing 163
Professional Publishers Ranked: Solid Gains In 2006: Reed On Top 165
The Internationalism Of Professional Publishing 169
IPA On The Rudiments 171
Mergers & Acquisitions In Professional Publishing 172
The Major Deal Of 2006/2007: Wiley Takes Blackwell 174
Legal And Medical Publishing 175
Professional Publishing And The Internet 176
Professional Publishing And Export Sales 177
Professional Publishing Sales Projections 180

Chapter Eight: Projections 183
Book Sales To Top $45 Billion By 2011 185
Religious, El-Hi Top Industry In Unit Sales Projections 189
Percentage Of Sales, Units Held By Various Segments 192
Consumer Expenditures Near $56 Billion In 2007 195
Conclusion 199

Chapter Nine: Profiles 201
Consumer Publishers 203
HarperCollins 205
Penguin Group USA 207
Random House 209
Reader’s Digest 213
Simon & Schuster 217
Hachette Book Group USA 219
John Wiley & Sons 221
Booksellers 225
Amazon.com 227
Barnes & Noble 231
Books-A-Million 234
Borders Group 237
Educational Publishers 241
Discovery Education 243
Haights Cross Communications 247
Highlights For Children 251
Houghton Mifflin Riverdeep Group 255
LeapFrog Enterprises 263
McGraw-Hill Education 267
Pearson Education 271
RD School & Educational Services 279
Renaissance Learning 283
Scholastic Inc. 287
School Specialty 291
Voyager Learning 295

Table Of Tables

Chapter Two: Overview Of The Book Business 13
Table 2.1—Book Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales 2005-2006 20
Table 2.2—Book Publishers’ Net Unit Sales 2005-2006 21
Table 2.3—The 20 Largest Book Publishers In North America 23

Chapter Three: Consumer Publishing 25
Table 3.1—Consumer Book Publishing Industry—Dollar Sales 27
Table 3.2—Consumer Book Publishing Industry—Unit Sales 28
Table 3.3—Overall Trade Sales, 2004-2008 30
Table 3.4—Total Adult Trade Sales 2004-2008 31
Table 3.5—Adult Trade Hardcover Sales 2004-2008 31
Table 3.6—Adult Trade Paperback Sales 2004-2008 32
Table 3.7—Ranking Of The 12 Largest U.S. M-M/Trade Publishers, 2006 33
Table 3.8—Juvenile Trade Sales 2004-2008 36
Table 3.9—Juvenile Hardcover Trade Book Sales 2004-2008 36
Table 3.10—Juvenile Paperbook Trade Book Sales 2004-2008 37
Table 3.11—Estimated Revenues Of The 11 Largest Children’s Publishers 39
Table 3.12—Religious Books Sales, 2004-2008 41
Table 3.13—Estimated Revenues Of The Top 10 Pure-Play Christian Publishers 42
Table 3.14—Top 30 Christian Book Titles Based On Revenues, 2004 45
Table 3.15—Mass Market Book Sales, 2004-2008 47
Table 3.16—Book Club Sales, 2005-2008 48
Table 3.17—Mail Order Sales, 2005-2008 50
Table 3.18—Percent Of Audio Books Sold By Genre 52
Table 3.19—Estimated Market Share Of The Top 15 Consumer Categories 53
Table 3.20—Profitability Index For Major Book Publishers 55
Table 3.21—Profitability Index For Major Booksellers 55
Table 3.22—Consumer Publishing Mergers & Acquisitions 2006-2007 57
Table 3.23—The Top 100 Selling Books Of 2006 58

Chapter Four: Book Retailing 63
Table 4.1—Estimated Retail Outlet Market Share Of Consumer Market 64
Table 4.2—Three Largest U.S. Book Chains, 2006-2005 66
Table 4.3—The Seven Largest U.S. Bookstore Chains 68
Table 4.4—Superstore Versus Mall Store Growth 69
Table 4.5—Revenues Of Major Online Booksellers 2004-2006 72

Chapter Five: Mergers & Acquisitions 75
Table 5.1—Recent Acquisitions In Educational Publishing 77
Table 5.2—Book Publishing-Related Mergers & Acquisitions, 2007 78
Table 5.3—Book Publishing-Related Mergers & Acquisitions, 2006 83
Table 5.4—Book Publishing—Related Mergers & Acquisitions, 2005 91
Table 5.5—Book Publishing—Related Mergers & Acquisitions, 2004 96
Table 5.6—Book Publishing—Related Mergers & Acquisitions, 2003 101

Chapter Six: Educational Publishing 109
Table 6.1— K-12 Market Size Estimates, 1999-00 Through 2006-07 110
Table 6.2—Subtext Ranking: Publishers’ Education Operations, 2006 112
Table 6.3—Subtext Rankings 2006: School And College Publishers 116
Table 6.4—Estimated Per Capita Spending On Course Materials 121
Table 6.5—Estimated Per Capita Spending On Textbooks 121
Table 6.6—Projected Technology Spending By Department 124
Table 6.7—Computer Brand Of Choice, 2005-vs. 2004 125
Table 6.8—2005 Total Net El-Hi Sales By Product Category 127
Table 6.9—2004 Total Net El-Hi Sales By Product Category 128
Table 6.10—Total Net El-Hi Sales By Product Category: Percent Changes 129
Table 6.11—Net Sales By Subjects, Open Territories 130
Table 6.12—Net Sales In Open Territories, Percent Change 130
Table 6.13—Net Sales By Subjects In Adoption States 131
Table 6.14—Net Sales In Adoption States, Percent Change 131
Table 6.15—2005 Total Net Sales By Subject 132
Table 6.16—2004 Total Net Sales By Subject 133
Table 6.17—2005-2004 Net Sales, Percent Change 133
Table 6.18—2005 Net Sales By Geographic Category, Open Territories 134
Table 6.19—2005 Net Sales By Geographic Category, Adoption States 135
Table.6.20—2005 Net Sales, Percent Change 136
Table 6.21—2005 Operating Data As A Percentage Of Net Sales 137
Table 6.22—2004 Operating Data As A Percentage Of Net Sales 138
Table 6.23—Marketing Expense As A Percentage Of Net Sales, 2005 138
Table 6.24—Number Of Participants In Educational Institutions, Fall 2006 139
Table 6.25—El-Hi Enrollment, Public & Private 140
Table 6.26—Number Of Public Schools & Districts 141
Table 6.27—Private Sector: Student Enrollment & Number Of Schools 141
Table 6.28—Catholic El-Hi Enrollment, Schools 142
Table 6.29—Higher Education Enrollment, 1990-2009 143
Table 6.30—Current Expenditures In Fall Enrollment 144
Table 6.31—Current Expenditures In Average Daily Attendance 145
Table 6.32—Funding Sources For Public Schools 146
Table 6.33—Current-Fund Expenditures (Higher Education) 147
Table 6.34—Educational/General Expenditures (Higher Education) 148
Table 6.35—K-12 Classroom Teachers To 2015 149
Table 6.36—K-12 Pupil/Teacher Ratios To 2015 149

Table 6.37—Enrollment Projections, K-12 Public & Private, 2003-2015 151
Table 6.38—El-Hi And College Enrollment, 2003-2015 151
Table 6.39—PK-12 Public School Enrollment By Region, 2003-2015 152
Table 6.40—PK-8, 9-12 Public School Enrollment By Region, 2003-2015 153
Table 6.41—Current Expenditures (Fall Enrollment), 2002-03-2015-16 155
Table 6.42—Current Expenditures (ADA), 2002-03-2015-16 156
Table 6.43—Current-Fund Expenditures, Higher Education 157
Table 6.44—Education & General Expenditures, Higher Education 157
Table 6.45—El-Hi Textbooks: Sales, Consumer Expenditures Projections 159
Table 6.46—College Textbooks: Sales, Consumer Expenditures Projections 160
Table 6.47—Educational Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales, 2005-2011 161
Table 6.48—Publishers’ Sales Projections To 2011, Standardized Tests 161

Chapter Seven: Professional Publishing 163
Table 7.1—Ranking Of Professional Publishers, 2006-2005 166
Table 7.2—Professional Publishing: Segment Breakout, 2006-2005 167
Table 7.3—Top Three Professional Publishers, Sales By Region, 2006 170
Table 7.4—Billion+ Transactions In Professional Publishing 173
Table 7.5—John Wiley & Sons 174
Table 7.6—Major Deals In Legal Publishing 175
Table 7.7—Selected Book Export Categories, 2006, 2005 178
Table 7.8—Top Exports Destinations, Technical, Scientific, Professional 178
Table 7.9—Professional Publishing Projections, 2006-2011 179
Table 7.10—Professional Publishing, Segments Sales Projections, 2006-2011 181

Chapter Eight: Projections 183
Table 8.1—Book Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales, 2006-2007 184
Table 8.2—Book Publishers: Estimated Net Sales, 2002-2006 185
Table 8.3—Book Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales, 2005-2011 186
Table 8.4—Book Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales, % Change, Compound Growth 188
Table 8.5—Book Publishers’ Units; Projections 2005-2011 190
Table 8.6—Book Publisher’ Unit Sales, % Change, Compound Growth 191
Table 8.7—Book Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales, Percentage Of Industry Total 193
Table 8.8—Book Publishers’ Unit Sales, Percentage Of Total 194
Table 8.7—Book Publishers’ Domestic Consumer Expenditures, 2005-2011 197
Table 8.10—Consumer Expenditures, % Change, Compound Growth Rate 198

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